What last year's numbers tell you about this year's busy season
You come out with the exact date of your last peak marked on the calendar and this season's plan locked in, with a date and a number in every box.
You know there's a time of year when your business takes off, but if someone asked you the exact date it started last year, you'd hesitate. You go by memory: around July 4th, starting in September. That memory is what you use to decide when to warn your customers, how much stock to order, or how many slots to open on your calendar, and you almost always end up either too late or over-ordering. Next year you'll decide the same way, by guesswork, even though last year's own sales already wrote the answer down.
This course works with your own numbers, not industry averages. First you pull the exact date of last year's peak and the multiplier your sales hit that week. With those two numbers set, you decide when to start promoting this year, how much stock or how many appointment slots to open, and the exact day to raise your price, based on the point last year when you ran short and people kept buying anyway. You finish with those decisions, plus the date to review them, written on one page with a date and a number for each.
This is for you if you've already got at least one full season of sales or bookings tracked somewhere. If you just opened and don't have a year of numbers behind you yet, you don't have anything to work with here yet.
- Mark the exact week your high season started and ended last year.
- Calculate your peak-season factor: how many times more you sell in your busiest week compared to a normal week.
- Set the date you'll start this season's alerts, calculated from your own peak, not from the calendar.
- Close out the season with a one-page document that sets when to start promoting, how much to open, when to raise your price, and when to review it all, each decision with its own date and number.
Have last year's sales or bookings on hand, broken down by week, even if it's just a spreadsheet.
The 6 lessons
In the order it makes the most sense to read them.
- 1
The date your high season actually started, not the one you remember
Walk away with the exact date, week, and day your high season started and ended last year, marked against your own numbers instead of your memory.
4 min - 2
The multiplier you'll use: your peak-season factor
By the end, you'll have your peak-season factor calculated and written down: how many times more you sell in your busiest week versus a normal week, ready to apply this year.
4 min - 3
The date you start sending alerts this year, not the one you remember from last year
Walk away with the exact date you'll kick off this season's alerts, calculated backward from your peak instead of from last year's calendar.
4 min - 4
How much stock or how many calendar slots to open this year, as a number
Multiply your normal capacity today by your last peak's growth factor, and you'll know how much stock or how many slots to open this season, with extra margin only if you sell products.
5 min - 5
The day from last year that tells you when to raise your price this season
Find the exact day last season when you ran low on stock or calendar slots and demand still didn't drop, and use that as your date to raise the price this season.
4 min - 6
Next season's plan, with a date and a number in every box
Close out the season with a one-page document that locks in, with dates and numbers, when to spread the word, how much to open, when to raise your price, and when to review it all.
5 min